6.15.2005

Buy The Book: Forecast



Sometimes, John Kruk says something that makes folks wonder how he can walk upright and speak in semi-coherent sentences. That's when we go ... BUY THE BOOK! Here's today's word:

fore·cast (fôr'kăst', fōr'-)

v., -cast or -cast·ed, -cast·ing, -casts.

DEFINITION:
v.tr.
1) To estimate or calculate in advance, especially to predict (weather conditions) by analysis of meteorological data.
2) To serve as an advance indication of; foreshadow: price increases that forecast inflation.

v.intr.
1) To calculate or estimate something in advance; predict the future.

n.
1) A prediction, as of coming events or conditions.

INVESTOPEDIA:
Forecasting - The process of analyzing current and historical data to determine future trends.

Stock analysts use various forecasting methods to determine future stock price movements, earnings, etc. Economists use forecasting techniques in order to determine future economic trends.

SEE ALSO: Barometer, Econometrics, Indicator, Technical Analysis

HOPE YOU BROUGHT AN UMBRELLA:
"[...] E$PN.com lists two areas that John Kruk feels that contending teams can improve on, [including] Atlanta's outfield [...] To drive this point home he presents the following table.

2004:
AVG: .282
HR: 88
RBI: 285

2005:
AVG: .230
HR: 28
RBI: 97

"Wow, one would say, Atlanta's outfield is three times worse this year than it was last year. The people who enjoy John Kruk's writing stop there, and absorb this sagely wisdom. The smart person says 'wait a second, Andruw Jones already has 16 home runs, so that can't be the projected numbers for the entire season. Kruk can't be that stupid though, maybe that was last year's outfield at this point in the season. No, that wouldn't make sense either, since it means that the outfielders would average 80 home runs a piece. This means John Kruk just compared stats a third of the way through the season against stats compiled in an entire year.'

"At this point, my brain explodes, leaving a horrible mess for me to clean up in the morning." (Andrew, DePodesta For President)

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